Cadel Evans
After finishing over fifteen minutes down last year, I was at the point of writing off Evans’ future as a grand tour contender. However, his performance at the Giro d’Italia showed that the veteran Australian still has the legs be a contender at the Tour. He may have finished over five minutes behind Nibali, but this was a very good effort considering the Giro was a late addition to Evans’ race schedule and a mechanical cost him time on stage 20. The BMC rider says that he’s been spending the time between the Giro and the Tour focusing on recovery, but has found the time to travel to France to check out a few key stages. If he can really use the Giro has a springboard for better things at the Tour, then Evans could surpass Firmin Lamont in 1922 as the oldest winner of the Tour de France.
Richie Porte
A good friend of Froome, Porte is likely to be much more content in his role as super domestique than Froome was last year. However, over the last few months the Tasmanian has emerged as a genuine grand tour contender. First in Paris-Nice was followed up by a string of second places in the Criterium International, Tour of the Basque Country and the Criterium du Dauphiné, and it is these opportunities for a rider like Porte to gain personal glory that will ensure loyalty in July. Like Froome, he should be able to gain time on both time trials, so I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a Sky 1-2 going into the final few days in the Alps, and he is undoubtedly good enough to step onto the podium in Paris.
Nairo Quintana
I’ve been excited about Nairo Quintana since this time last year, when he took a superb victory into Morzine in the Dauphiné, the only time last year that anyone was able to ride away from Sky in the mountains. He followed that up with the overall win in the Route du Sud and a victory over Richie Porte in this year’s Tour of the Basque Country. Perhaps the latter of these victories was the most impressive, as it was built not only upon fantastic climbing ability (for me he is perhaps the most naturally gifted climber in the peloton at the moment) but also on time trialling ability that belies our stereotypes of Colombian riders. My only fear is that Movistar will shackle the 23 year old in support of Alejandro Valverde. However, for me Quintana is the favourite for the white jersey, and, if his lack of experience does not prove a hinderance, could perhaps challenge for a place on the podium.
Joaquim Rodriguez
After his outstanding 2012, this year has been relatively quiet for Joaquim Rodriguez. Stage wins at the Tour of Oman and Tirreno-Adriatico, along with second overall in the Volta a Catalunya and second in Liege-Bastogne-Liege make it difficult to predict whether he will come to France in top form. He was also quite at the Dauphiné, where all we saw was a late attack on the road to Superdevoluy and seventh on the stage to Risoul while working for Moreno, suggesting he still had a bit of work to do to reach his best before the Tour. At the age of 34, the Spaniard is quickly running out of time to notch up a grand tour victory, and his hopes in the Tour will rest on big attacks in the mountains while aiming to limit his losses in the time trials. However, he will have to be on great form to be challenging for the yellow jersey in Paris, as the lack of time bonuses does not play into his hands.
Tejay Van Garderen
Desipite finishing in fifth place in last year’s Tour, four and a half minutes ahead of Cadel Evans, the American has once again found himself in the domestique role for this year. A succession of high placings throughout the year has confirmed that Van Garderen has the ability to consistently challenge for stage race honours. However, he will be disappointed with seventh place in the Tour de Suisse, especially the one minute nineteen seconds he gave away to Rui Costa on the final time trial, almost entirely on the climb to the finish line at Flumersberg. Despite this the 24 year old is still among the favourites for the white jersey, even if he will face stiff competition from Quintana, Pinot, and Talansky.
Alejandro Valverde
With Valverde and Quintana, along with a supporting cast of Costa, Szmyd, and Amador, Movistar can put themselves alongside Sky and Saxo-Tinkoff with one of the strongest climbing teams in the race. Valverde was quiet in the Dauphiné, a half-hearted attack on the road to Valmorel being one of his few forays off the front on the way to seventh overall. Like Contador, it was clear that Valverde has the acceleration to get away from Sky, but is just lacking the threshold power to consolidate the gap. Certainly has the ability to challenge for yellow as long as he doesn’t lose too much time in the stage 11 time trial, but may find himself working for Quintana.
Ryder Hesjedal
The Canadian really hasn’t had much luck since his Giro d’Italia win in 2012. After abandoning this year’s Giro due to illness and poor form, a nasty crash took him out of the Tour de Suisse last week. However before that misfortune he had seemed in decent form, taking ninth in the opening time trial before going on the offensive on the road to Crans Montana. Thankfully for Hesjedal, most of the key stages of this year’s Tour come in the second half of the race, meaning that he has time to ride himself into the race, especially if the Pyrenean stages are cagey as predicted.
Thibaut Pinot
After being the revelation of last year’s Tour, Pinot has continued his progress by riding well all year, and certainly looks to be peaking at the right time with fourth in the Tour de Suisse. Only just 23 years old, I wouldn’t expect Pinot to be genuinely challenging for the yellow jersey in Paris, especially as he’s another rider who will lose time in the time trials. However, he is capable of challenging for the white jersey and seems increasingly comfortable in his position as team leader and the most recent big French hope.
Jurgen Van Den Broeck
Fourth in the Tour in 2010 and 2012, illness prevented us from seeing us what Belgium’s best GC rider could offer up at the Criterium du Dauphiné earlier this month, abandoning the race on stage 7 at the top of Alpe d’Huez. Form could therefore be an issue for the Lotto-Belisol man, although, like a few other riders, he might be able to ride himself into top shape in the first week.
Pierre Rolland
A surprise winner the last time the Tour visited Alpe d’Huez, Pierre Rolland grabbed another stage victory last year on the way to eighth overall. I was preparing to write about his lack of form over the rest of this year, but looking through his results for previous years, he has always been very quiet before coming good for the Tour. Now too old to challenge for the white jersey, it will be interesting to see if Rolland can maintain the consistency to challenge for yellow, or if he will be content with stage wins.
Andrew Talansky
The final white jersey contender on this list, I’m really looking forward to seeing how the young American gets on in his first Tour. Impressive on the Dauphiné stage to Risoul where he was the only rider able to match Froome and Porte, emerging from the fog to catch them on the line. Talansky certainly has the legs to be in the top ten come Paris, but it remains to see whether a lack of experience or domestique duties could get in the way of personal ambitions.
Daniel Navarro
A late addition to this list after his superb performance in the Dauphiné, the man who was such a fantastic domestique for Contador at Astana in 2009 and 2010 seems to have rediscovered his climbing legs after a couple of years of not doing very much. He certainly seems to be able to stay with the likes of Froome and Contador in the mountains and can also put in reasonable performances against the clock, so should be looking for a top ten finish. The only problems may be a lack of experience of fighting for GC in grand tours and the Cofidis team divided in support of Navarro, Taaramae, and Coppel.
Dan Martin
The third Garmin-Sharp rider in this list, Dan Martin has been one of the most impressive riders of 2013, with unexpected victories in the Volta a Catalunya and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Eighth place in the Tour de Suisse shows that he is yet to hit top shape, but this should be expected giving that the Irishman had only raced the Bayern Rundfahrt since the Ardennes Classics. His ungainly style fails to do justice to Martin’s excellent climbing, and if he can ride himself into form over the first week, the Garmin-Sharp man is capable of a comfortable top ten finish.
Rui Costa
The Portuguese’s successful defence of his Tour de Suisse title showed that he will be in top form on the start line in Porto-Vecchio. His victory this year was even more impressive than last year. Whereas last year’s ride was defensive, this year Costa was on the attack, taking second on stage 3, first on stage 7 after initiating the attacks, before demolishing everyone in the final time trial. If he was riding for himself then Costa could certainly challenge for the top ten, probably higher, but any personal ambition could be sacrificed in support of Valverde and Quintana.
Jakob Fuglsang
While perhaps not a contender for the yellow jersey, the Dane should be aiming for a top ten finish, particularly as opportunities at the Tour de France could be few and far between in the future with Vincenzo Nibali staying at Astana until 2016. Fuglsang quietly rode to fourth in the Criterium du Dauphiné, and looking comfortable in the mountains. Consistency has always been the 28 year old’s main problem, so avoiding the dreaded jour sans will be the main concern.
Bauke Mollema
Second place behind the very impressive Costa was a good ride by the Dutchman, and should provide him with confidence ahead of the Tour. Fourth in the 2011 Vuelta shows that the 26 year old has the stamina to compete for top honours over the course of a grand tour. The podium should be beyond Mollema, but he should be expected to be put in an attacking performance in search of a top ten, maybe even top five.
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