With only ten days to go until the start of the 100th Tour de France, here’s a detailed look at the shape of the race, stage-by-stage.
Stage 1: Porto-Vecchio => Bastia
Amazingly you have to go as far back as 1966 to find the last time the sprinters were given a chance to fight it out for the yellow jersey on the first stage of the Tour (and even then the stage was won by a solo move by Rudi Altig into Charleville). Today stays away from Corsica’s mountainous interior and is definitely one for the pure sprinters, with a straightforward finish in a nondescript industrial estate just south of Bastia where the biggest obstacles will be the speed bumps and a lazy s-bend with 200m to go. However, expect a fast opening to the stage as half the peloton fights to be first over the Cote de Sotta to wear the polka dot jersey on stage 2.
Stage 2: Bastia => Ajaccio
A tough stage across the mountainous interior of Corsica, from the island’s east to west coast. A change in the yellow jersey seems likely, although these are steady well-surfaced climbs on the main road between Bastia and Ajaccio which will mostly be done in the big ring, so maybe the odd sprinter could hang on. The one kilometre climb of the Cote du Salario through the Ajaccio seems like an ideal springboard for an attack, however pan-flat final 11 km, possibly with a headwind, mean any attacker will need to have a decent time trial on him, especially if there is an organised chase behind.
Stage 3: Ajaccio => Calvi
Another tricky stage as the Tour snakes its way up Corsica’s east coast which should be worth watching for the spectacular views over the Mediterranean if nothing else, withe the Cote de Porto being particularly precariously balanced on the cliffs. As for the racing, the Col de Marsolino (3.3km at 8.8%) would seem to be a good launching pad for an attack, particularly by a strong climber who might not be a threat over the course of the three weeks. However, the final 8 km is a dead-straight run into Calvi, so a small group working well together would stand a much better chance than a lone rider. Nonetheless I would expect a decent sized group to contest the finish.
Stage 4: Nice => Nice (TTT)
Starting only a stone’s throw from the bottom of the Col d’Eze, a team time trial around Nice had the potential to be a hilly and technical affair. Instead we have a straightforward course that is basically out-and-back along the coast finishing on the Promenade des Anglais. Mainly on wide roads, the only difficult part of this stage could be the first few hundred metres on narrow roads with street furniture to get out of the town centre. If team organisation can make it beyond the first kilometre unscathed then the remaining twenty three should just be a case of which team can bring the biggest engines.
Stage 5: Cagnes-sur-Mer => Marseille
Another lumpy stage, but with the toughest climb of the day out of the way after only 22 km, this should be one for the sprinters. Nonetheless the Cote des Bastides and the unclassified Col de la Gineste could see some attacks if the break is brought back early, particularly from French riders who might be familiar with the parcours as the Tour borrows the finale from the Grand Prix d’Ouverture La Marseillaise, the opening race of the French season. This is a race that most often ends in a bunch sprint, so expect to see the same today, with another straightforward final few kilometres towards the finish on the sea front.
Stage 6: Aix-en-Provence => Montpellier
A classic ‘first week of the Tour’ stage: flat and with a seemingly inevitable bunch sprint. Normally the advice here would be to do something else with your day before tuning in for the twenty to watch the sprinters’ teams battle it out. However, if we’re lucky the mistral wind will blow from the north and these exposed roads across the Rhone delta will turn stage six into a key battle for GC like the memorable stage into La Grande-Motte back in 2009. If this is the case then experience will be just as important as good legs in deciding the selection.
Stage 7: Montpellier => Albi
The Tour moves away from the Mediterranean for the first time in the race as we cross the Haut-Languedoc to Albi. Transition stages such as this can often be good for the breakaway, but with the Pyrenees looming tomorrow and the worst of the climbing over in the first half of the stage, this should be another opportunity for the sprinters. The final 17 km are on one of the main roads into Albi and the final couple of kilometres to the finish through the centre of town are also straightforward with wide straight boulevards.
Stage 8: Castres => Ax 3 Domaines
Last time the Tour finished at Ax 3 Domaines was in 2010 when Christophe Riblon won from a solo break as the GC battle failed to materialise, and a similar scenario could occur here given the tough stage the following day. Both the Col de Pailhères (15.3 km at 8%) and the climb up to the ski resort of Ax 3 Domaines (7.8km at 8.2%) are classic Pyrenean climbs, never really settling at a consistent gradient but also never getting steep. However, while the climb to the top of the Pailhères is a very narrow road, the descent and the subsequent climb to Ax 3 Domaines are on wide, well-surfaced roads. This therefore doesn’t seem to be a stage for the pure climbers such as Rodriguez, instead, with a flat final 1.5 km this should be a group sprint among the GC contenders.
Stage 9: Saint-Girons => Bagnères-de-Bigorre
A big stage in the Pyrenees with no fewer than five major climbs that will leave the peloton grateful for the rest day in Saint Nazaire that follows. On this relatively short stage, expect to see legs softened up on the 15 km climb of the Col de Peyresourde and the Col de Val Louron-Azet, before the action kicks off the La Hourquette d’Anzican. This is a climb that starts off steep before easing off slightly in the middle. The final kilometre at 8.5% could allow for attacks before the spectacular narrow descent across the high pastures. However with just under 20 km to go we hit the wider valley roads, so it will be difficult for a lone rider to maintain a gap over any group behind.
Rest Day: St-Nazaire
Stage 10: St-Gildas-des-Bois => Saint-Malo
Traversing Brittany from north to south, this would seem to be one of the most straightforward stages of the race. However, the race follows the coast for the final 23km so a stiff breeze off the English channel could make the final difficult to control. The final kilometres are relatively easy, taking the boulevards into the centre of Saint-Malo rather than more narrow streets. The finish is on the seafront so a breeze should be coming from the right of the riders. Therefore if you think one of the sprinters might be boxed in on the right of the peloton think again, as gaps will open up as riders drift across the road with the wind.
Stage 11: Avranches => Mont-Saint-Michel (ITT)
The first of two individual time trials in this year’s Tour, if the encounters between the GC contenders in the Pyrenees have been marked by restraint, this could be the first time real time gaps could open up. With any flat time trial, the wind is always going to be important, but expect any big gaps to open up in the final 11 km, which are completely exposed, skirting the marshland along the Channel, and where any tiredness from the first half of the Tour could be evident. Expect the big powerful time trial specialists to thrive here, although if the wind changes during the day the result could not be what was expected.
Stage 12: Fougères => Tours
A long dull stage across the fields of northwestern France which serves little other purpose than to get us 218 km closer to the Alps. Jean François Pescheux, Christian Prudhomme’s deputy at ASO, tries to inject some excitement into this stage by questioning Sky’s strength and calling for attacks, but realistically this is going to be nothing other than a bunch sprint. Finishing outside the ground of FC Tours in the industrial outskirts of the town, the key points will be two ninety degree right hand bends at 700m and 400m to go. With street furniture in the middle of the road, all the sprinters teams will be fighting to get under the flamme rouge first and keep their man out of trouble.
Stage 13: Tours => Saint-Amand-Montrond
This should be a replica of yesterday’s stage as the Tour traverses central France on its way to the Alps. At first glance, the unclassified climb out of Bruère-Allichamps might appear to welcome attacks, it is little more than a gentle drag. However, the descent into Saint-Amand-Montrond is should string out the peloton, meaning the sprinters’ teams will want to take control early. The route towards the finish line is relatively straightforward until the final 900m. Here the peloton turn off main road with a ninety degree left hander which quickly followed by a tight right hand bend that sees them almost turn back on themselves, before another ninety degree left hander spits the race onto the finishing straight. Again, getting into the final kilometre first will be crucial.
Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Seine => Lyon
A lumpy day as the race crosses the Beaujolais, the famous wine-producing region which some of the riders would have sampled on stage 3 of the Criterium du Dauphiné. The profile should be enough to discourage the sprinters, and with Mont Ventoux looming tomorrow, most of the GC contenders should be content with a relatively easy day today, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the break fight it out for stage honours in France’s biggest city. However if the race does arrive in Lyon all together, then expect attacks on the urban climbs of the Cote de la Duchere and the Cote de la Criox-Rousse, although the long straight finish towards the Stade de Gerland should see such moves reeled back in.
Stage 15: Givors => Mont Ventoux
The longest stage of the race at a brutal 242.5 km, today is all about the second summit finish of this year’s race to Mont Ventoux. There is little to say about the Giant of Provence that has not already been said, but the combination of a gradient that regularly creeps into double figures and the high winds that often batter the riders on the second half of the climb always makes for spectacular racing. With a rest day tomorrow and what should have been a relatively easy previous three days for the GC contenders, we should hopefully see the fight for yellow really hot up on the bare slopes of Mont Ventoux.
Rest Day: Vaucluse
Stage 16: Vaison-la-Romaine => Gap
After the rest day, the Tour makes its way into Alps with a stage finish at Gap, a veteran of 21 Tour visits. The final third of this stage is identical to the end of stage 16 of the 2011 Tour de France, where Thor Hushovd took the win from Edvald Boasson Hagen and Ryder Hesjedal, while Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador, and Samuel Sanchez attacked on the Col de Manse before putting a vital 1’09” into Andy Schleck on the descent. Perhaps we will see a similar scenario this year, especially if the weather conspires to make the descent into Gap particularly treacherous. Also note the intermediate sprint at 123 km. If the race for the green jersey is tight, we might see the sprinters’ teams reel the break in early in order to collect the points.
Stage 17: Embrun => Chorges (ITT)
A vital time trial that should set the agenda for the next three days in the mountains. Neither the Cote de Puy-Sanières nor the Cote de Réallon would be particularly tough climbs on a normal road stage (both are just over 6 km at 6%) but in a time trial there is nowhere to hide, so half of the result will be down to simple maths of power versus weight. The descents and bike choices are also going to be vital. The first descent is arguably the most important, being both narrow and technical in places. However, a good bike handler could gain some vital seconds by switching from a road bike with clip on bars to a TT setup if he’s feeling confident. The descent into Chorges is on wider, less technical roads and should see all the riders on TT bikes as they should be hitting speeds in excess of 60 mph, but those most comfortable on a TT bike could again gain a few seconds.
Stage 18: Gap => Alpe d’Huez
The stage everyone is looking forward to, today is all about the unprecedented double ascent of Alpe d’Huez. Climbing out of Gap and up the Col de Manse, the route snakes around the Ecrins National Park before the Col d’Ornon warms the riders up for the Alpe. I wouldn’t expect the first ascent to be that important as riders save themselves for later. However, the descent of the Col de Sarenne is very technical, narrow, and poorly surfaced for the top half, so if one of the GC contenders has a deficit to make up, expect them to try their luck here in an attempt to take a lead onto the second climb of the Alpe. Hopefully we will see the attacks that this stage deserves, probably on the steeper sections in the first few kilometres or with five kilometres to go, with sections of over 10%.
Stage 19: Bourd-d’Oisans => Le Grand-Bornard
Another tough day in the Alps, but the hardest climbs come in the first half of the stage with long ascents of the Col du Glandon and the Col de la Madeleine. While the remaining climbs cannot match these two in terms of altitude, both the Col de l’Epine and the Col de la Croix Fry max out at over 10%. However, with a 200km mountain stage at the end of a three week grand tour, everyone’s legs will be tired, and with important summit finishes either side of today, I would be surprised to see anything other than minor skirmishes among the GC contenders on the Croix Fry. Expect a large break to go clear on the Glandon, and perhaps one or two could survive to contest the finish.
Stage 20: Annecy => Annecy-Semnoz
The shortest stage of the race promises explosive racing as the Tour does a lap of the Massif des Bauges before a stage finish above Annecy in the small ski resort of Semnoz. Mont Revard seems prominent on the stage profile, but with an average gradient of only 5.6% this should pose few problems for the few riders left in the hunt for the yellow jersey. So the Tour should be decided on the slopes up to Annecy-Semnoz, hosting its first Tour de France stage in an edition that has looked to the past much more than the future. The climb itself is tough, averaging 8.5% and with four kilometres at around 10%. Expect fireworks as anyone who is there or thereabouts in the top twenty empties themselves in search of as good a finishing position as possible.
Stage 20: Versailles => Paris Champs-Élysées
The final stage is usually a procession, but if the race for the polka dot jersey is extremely close then the two fourth category climbs early on could be important. Both of these climbs were part of the old Grand Prix des Nations route, and the Tour pays homage to Jacques Anquetil, nine time winner of that race and the first man to win the Tour de France five times, passing a memorial to him at the top of the Cote de Châteaufort. The stage is scheduled to finish at dusk, spending about two hours going up and down the Champs-Élysées, including the Arc de Triomphe in the circuit. As usual, expect a big bunch sprint which could even decide the green jersey.
Student Cyclist 