How Do You Solve A Problem Like Sagan?

This week you would be hard-pressed to find a hotel in Oudenaarde that didn’t contain a directeur sportif mulling over how his team can beat Peter Sagan in the Tour of Flanders

At time of writing the Slovak national champion had followed up on second in Milan-San Remo with second in E3 Harelbeke and wins in Gent-Wevelgem and the first stage of the Dreidaagse De Panne. Most ominously, his Gent-Wevelgem win came courtesy of a solo attack with 4km remaining, dispelling any assumptions that Sagan might ride defensively and rely on his sprinting skills come Sunday.

The Big Cancellara Attack

Dirk Demol will probably be losing the least sleep over this dilemma. From the look of his attack at E3 Harelbeke, the Radioshack manager seems to have Fabian Cancellara back in his best shape since he took Flanders and Roubaix in 2010. On Friday he attacked on the Oude Kwaremont, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar move on Sunday, with Cancellara gaining a small gap on the steeper first half of the climb before simply riding away from everyone as the gradient eases off. The only stumbling block to this plan might be the Paterberg, which comes after the Oude Kwaremont in the Tour of Flanders, as opposed to before it in E3 Harelbeke, meaning that Cancellara has to have something in reserve at the top of the Oude Kwaremont. For me this is the only way that Cancellara can beat Sagan come Sunday. He obviously doesn’t have the legs to beat the Slovak in a sprint, so instead needs to make sure that he is dispatched earlier in the race.

The Sagan Slip-Up

Arguably, the success Cancellara’s attack in E3 Harelbeke lay as much in Sagan’s mistakes than Cancellara strength. Positioning is crucial in these races and it seems that Sagan is yet to master this art.  Sagan’s failure to follow Cancellara’s originated with Boonen’s obligatory attack on the Taaienberg. This allowed an elite group of eight riders to go off the front, while Sagan was stuck in the main peloton due to being too far back coming in to the climb. A frantic chase ensued, costing Sagan and his teammates valuable energy.

Although Cannondale had brought this group back by the base of the Paterberg, Sagan again failed to place himself well going into the climb, finding himself towards the back of the group. With Boonen and Cancellara starting to light it up ahead, Sagan was forced to ride on the cobbles instead of in the gutter in an attempt to get around the rest of the group to cover possible attacks at the front.

This meant that by the time the race reached the Oude Kwaremont, Sagan had expended far too much unnecessary energy through inexperience and poor position, and it was because of this that he was unable to follow Cancellara’s attack. In these tough single-day races, it is often the freshest, not the strongest, rider that will take the win. If Sagan wants to win the Tour of Flanders, he needs to rely on his head to keep him out of trouble rather than his legs to get him out of trouble.

The Triple-Pronged Omega-Pharma Quickstep Attack

Omega-Pharma Quickstep probably have the most options going into the Tour of Flanders. Illness, injury, and a crash in Gent-Wevelgem have led to many dismissing Tom Boonen as a contender this spring. However, he hasn’t been bad, just not in the unbelievable form that he was in last spring. I find
it difficult to write-off the three-time winner in his favourite race.

Meanwhile, Patrick Lefevere can call on Sylvain Chavanel and Niki Terpstra, two riders who would be leading most other teams, to give Omega-Pharma plenty of options for Sunday.

None of these riders are the equal of Sagan in his current form, so the strategy must be to attack, attack, and then attack again. If the team can put one of this trio (or perhaps even the likes of Stijn Vandenbergh, Gert Steegmans, and Iljo Keisse) up the road then Sagan will be forced to chase while Lefevere’s men will be given a free ride. If one attack is brought back, then they have to make another one. It is only through this strategy that Omega-Pharma Quickstep can tire Sagan to the extent that he will be forced to let one of the moves get away.

The Sprint

Believe it or not, but if Sagan arrives in Oudenaarde as part of a group, the result is not inevitable. Arnaud Demare probably would have beaten the Slovak on the first stage of the Dreidaagse De Panne if he’d been a little braver.

The key to this tactic is to make sure that Sagan is not fresh come the finish, whether thanks to poor positioning as mentioned earlier, or through having to chase down a move in the run-in. Gerald Ciolek proved that this was possible in Milan-San Remo, sticking onto the Slovak’s back wheel while the Cannondale rider buried himself to chase down threatening moves.

The question is who can has the ability to both beat Sagan in a sprint and make it to the finish in the first place? BMC seem to have a couple of options in Daniel Oss and Taylor Phinney, although I’m not sure if Phinney will be focussing more on Paris-Roubaix. Borut Bozic and Lars Boom are also riders who possibly have the ability to carry out this coup, while this tactic could provide Edvald Boasson Hagen with way to silence his doubters within the Sky camp.

The Dark Horse

Frederic Guesdon’s attack just after the Trouée d’Arenberg in the 2011 Paris-Roubaix was looked innocuous enough, but 81km later, Johan Van Summeren, one of the first riders to latch onto his wheel, was celebrating an unlikely solo win in the Roubaix velodrome. If Sagan and the other main contenders start focussing solely on each other rather than the race as a whole come Sunday, then an unthreatening attack can quite quickly get out of hand and snatch the win.

A possible dark horse could come from one of the big teams, meaning that the team leaders behind will be less inclined to chase, or one of the smaller teams who decide that the best chance for their best riders to shine is in a long break.

There many riders who could take this role, but a few names which stand out for me are Maxin Iglinsky and Assan Bazayev (Astana), Yoann Offredo (FDJ), Davide Cimolai (Lampre), Jens Debusschere (Lotto), Andrey Amador (Movistar), Jens Keukelaire (Orica), and Ramunas Navardauskus (Garmin).