Season Preview 2012: Part 2 – The Grand Tours

Passo di Stelvio – a monster

Giro d’Italia

Last year’s Giro was billed, perhaps with justification, as one of the toughest grand tours of the modern era. With five “medium mountain” stages, eight “high mountain” stages, seven summit finishes and a mountain time trial, this was an outrageously tough route, something for which the Giro organisers faced fierce criticism from some areas of the press and the peloton.
Indeed, as it turned out, one of the most eagerly awaited editions of the race in many a year largely failed to deliver the drama that the route seemed to promise on paper. From his dominant victory on stage 9 to Mount Etna the pink jersey always seemed destined to be taken all the way to Milan by Alberto Contador. Indeed as the race went on the Spaniard even seemed content to hand out stage wins, with José Rujano and former teammate Paolo Tiralongo benefitting on stages 13 and 19 respectively. However, as I’m sure you all know, the final decision on the destination of the maglia rosa remains in the hands of CAS.
However, this year promises to be a very different prospect. First of all RCS have come up with a much more reasonable route, removing any 229km mountain stages that take some riders well over 8 hours to complete. Hopefully this should prevent the defensive and cautious riding that we saw from the favourites last year. With the exception of the trip following the first three stages in Denmark, the long transfers of last year have also been removed, hopefully giving us much more refreshed riders at the start of each stage. Not that the race has been made a ride in the park. The penultimate stage still finishes atop the 2757m Stelvio Pass, the highest stage finish in grand tour history, a full 112m higher than the memorable stage 18 to the Galibier on last year’s Tour de France. Hopefully with this year’s route there will still be enough riders in contention for it to be worth watching.
The other and perhaps more crucial reason is very simple: Alberto Contador won’t be riding. After his fairly disappointing (by his standards) Tour de France, the Spaniard announced that he will not be riding the 2012 Giro in order to be competitive in July as has become clear that it is nigh on impossible to do the Giro/Tour double nowadays (after all the last man to do so was Marco Pantani in 1998). Last year Contador was simply in a different league to Michele Scarponi and Vicenzo Nibali, his nearest challengers, so next year the playing field should be much more even and much more exciting.
The Giro always throws up some surprises and allows for some new stars to let themselves shine. Last year we saw great performances from promising names such as Oscar Gatto, Steven Kruijswijk, Bart de Clerq and Diego Ulissi. Expect to hear more of these four in 2012, and expect the Giro to throw up yet more surprises, although I fear with so many concentrating on the Tour de France, fewer and fewer of the big GC contenders will have the Giro circled on their calendar
Finally, the 2011 Giro d’Italia will always sadly be remembered for the death of Wouter Weylandt on the descent of the Passo del Bocco on stage 3 of which I feel there is little that I need to say. As a fitting tribute we will not see the number 108 (Weylandt’s 2011 race number) in the 2012 race as the organisers have retired it from all future editions. Let’s hope there is nothing even close to this story next year.
Two horse race?
Tour de France

The 2011 Tour de France was one of the most exciting editions of the race and probably the best since 1989. The race had everything. From the crashes that dominated the first week to Thomas Voeckler heroic defence of the race lead through the Pyrenees and half of the Alps, Andy Schleck’s epic 60km attack to the Col de Galibier and Cadel Evans’ equally heroic chase that would eventually secure him the yellow jersey on the Champs Elysees.
In contrast to the Giro route what looked to be a fairly average Tour route delivered intriguing viewing throughout. The number of uphill finishes in the first and second weeks kept riders and TV audiences interested, a contrast to the dull and flat sprint stages that can become monotonous between the Alps and the Pyrenees. This was also helped by a rejigging of the points system to place more emphasis on the single intermediate sprint on each stage. Not only did this keep viewers interested and the sprinters’ teams on their toes, but it also helped to secure, in the eyes of Tour director Christian Prudhomme, a long overdue green jersey for Mark Cavendish.
One of the highlights of last year’s race was the short 109km from Modane to Alpe d’Huez. This three hour stage provided many more twists and turns than a stage of double its length. Although there will not be a similar stage in this year’s race, expect to see something similar in years to come.
Turning to this year and we see a different prospect to last year. The Auvergne that provided so  much excitement is bypassed although it is replaced in part by the Vosges and a “summit” finish at La Planche des Belles Filles which includes sections of 14%.
The two stages in the Alps are fairly standard fair, although we will be visiting some new climbs such as the Grand Colombier. As for the Pyrenees the biggest challenge seems to lie in 197km trek from Pau to Bagnères de Luchon climbing the Aubisque, Tourmalet, Aspin and Peyresourde. Not one for the faint-hearted.
However unusually it is not the mountains that stand out in 2012, it’s the time trials. Two full length time trials alongside the prologue in Liège add up to 96km against the clock. The last time time trials made up this much distance was in 2007 when Alberto Contador, Cadel Evans and Levi Leipheimer made up the top three. All top quality time trialists.
Evans and Contador should therefore expect to be right up there going into the penultimate day time trial. This has also got to be Bradley Wiggins’ best ever crack at the yellow jersey especially as he’s not getting any younger. As for Andy Schleck, you have to feel that if he fell short of Cadel Evans last year then he is unlikely to get any closer this year with a route that doesn’t exactly compliment his talents unless his time trialling dramatically improves.
As for the French contingent it will be interesting to see how the Europcar duo of Voeckler and Rolland get on. Voeckler will be kept under a much tighter leash and won’t be allowed to get in long breaks. Rolland on the other hand will be looking to build on last year’s stage win to Alpe d’Huez and may be targeting a top ten finish.
The rules for the other classifications remain unchanged. Thankfully the polka dot jersey can no longer be won by an average rider getting in plenty of break aways over third category climbs, so expect a decent overall contender to come home with that, as Sammy Sanchez did last year. As for the green jersey it seems to have Cavendish written all over it. As long as Sky can balance the responsibility of going for yellow and green there seem to be few who will be able to challenge him.
Froome vs Cobo Part 2?
Vuelta a España

A race that can often get dismissed as ‘the other’ grand tour certainly offered more than its fair share of excitement last year. Often dismissed as a serious objective by some of the bigger names of the sport, the crash-ridden Tour de France forced many to reassess their seasons, leading to a top quality peloton containing the likes of Nibali, Wiggins, Van den Broeck and Menchov. However the usual suspects were upstaged by breakthrough performances from Chris Froome and Juan Jose Cobo, with the former especially proving to be a revelation.
Whether or not we get a repeat of the excitement of last year with the fight for the red jersey continuing to the bitter end remains to be seen, but I doubt whether 2012 will bring a repeat of the quality of field that we saw last year, bar a repeat of high casualties in the Tour. This still remains a tour in which to blood GC contenders for the other grand tours.
As as the route goes, the formula remains largely similar to last year. Plenty of summit finishes (most of them steep, even on so-called ‘flat’ stages) with only two tests against the clock: a team time trial on the opening day and a 40km solo effort along the Galician coast on stage 11, sure to be one for the strong men with inevitable crosswinds.
Three summit finishes in as many days in the second week will whittle down the contenders, but if it’s tight expect fireworks on the penultimate stage to the Bola del Mundo, where Vincenzo Nibali held off incessant attacks from a certain Ezequiel Mosquera to secure victory in 2010.
To try and predict a winner now would be foolish (and would probably commit whoever I picked to a broken collarbone in early August) and we’ll have to see how the season plays out to decide who’s in form and even who’s riding. As for Froome and Cobo everything will depend on how they are used by their team during the season. Both are known to have an interest in riding for GC in the Tour but will have to contend with strong riders on their respective teams who also have an eye on this.
Whatever the case expect to see some new faces coming through in this race next year.

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